Which Nintendo console had the biggest launch?

Nintendo expects to sell 15 million Switch 2 for the current fiscal year. Analysts consider this number to be conservative. Nintendo says the Switch 2 price is what keeps that estimate down. But what does that really mean? Is that a reasonable target? If Nintendo is a hit, can you guarantee that Switch 2 will be a huge hit? If the console sells out at launch, what will it tell you? Is there still a possibility of a Wii U-style flop?

It’s certainly impossible to know, but looking at all the Nintendo’s previous console launches gives you some clues. I delved deep into past Nintendo sales figures and decided which Nintendo consoles enjoyed their best launches. To capture that first, almost inevitable, more reliable photo than the sold-out, I defined launch as the first year of the console (or rather, the first four financial quarters) on the market.

Note that Nintendo only began reporting quarterly sales of its system in the mid-2000s, with the earliest data being annual at best, and some of these figures approximate. Also note that the older system had an incredible launch across three major markets (Japan, North America and Europe) by slowing potential sales over several years.

Still, here are some surprising results that explain in context the 15 million predictions for the Nintendo Switch 2. Selling a lot of units is definitely not bad news, but it doesn’t show Slam Dunk either.

There is a clear pattern for the two fastest sellers at Nintendo. They were the successors of a massive hit in the handheld market (The Game Boy and DS), and Nintendo enjoyed full control. Nintendo has been extremely bullish about the Game Boy Advance following a decade-long reign in the Game Boy format, predicting an astounding 24 million sales in its first year, with the 3DS continuing to be Nintendo’s biggest seller. Both sold well, but neither lived much to their ancestors.

The Switch and Wii are the only Nintendo consoles with over 10 million sales in the first year and Over 100 million people in their lifetime. During the quarterly quarter, they sold incredibly consistently over time. This is certainly how Nintendo wants to make all the hardware boot look and what it wants on Switch 2.

It’s surprising that the DS didn’t launch any more strongly, given early sales of its handheld predecessor, Game Boy Advance. However, the game that launched wasn’t the best, and the odd design of the console took time to eventually find a large casual audience. The fifth quarter – Holiday 2005 – suddenly took off.

The two Nintendo home consoles, made during the PlayStation advantage, enjoyed a rather powerful launch, but they put out Peter due to lack of software support. GameCube sold 30% of its first year lifetime total for sale. This is an unfortunate achievement that beats the Wii U’s gloomy ratio.

The legend of the Game Boy is that it was an instant smash thanks to the acquisition of the High Stakes Tetris. However, its launch was healthy at the time, but it didn’t begin to show what Nintendo’s definition of handheld would achieve. Sales in the first year (before reaching Europe) were only 3% of those sold in Game Boy and Game Boy colors.

Nintendo’s latest (but not the worst) flops actually started out very strongly, shifting over 3 million units in the first quarter, but then suffered catastrophic drop-offs, selling under 900,000 worldwide for the rest of the year of sales. Seeing the first holiday sold out, the signs of a coming disaster were clear.

Both Nintendo’s early home consoles were launched strongly in Japan, but took a long time to take off on the west. After the video games crashed in the 1980s, SNES collided with western markets by Sega Genesis, resulting in a struggle, while NES was not released entirely in the US and Europe until 1986.

You won’t get a worse launch than being discontinued within a year of release!

What does this mean for the release of the Switch 2?

If Nintendo meets or exceeds the target of the 15 million Switch 2 sold in its first fiscal year, Nintendo’s top console will rank on the top released. The Wii U-style flop looks very unlikely unless sales drop significantly after the first few months.

But the most notable comparisons here are Nintendo’s top two launches, the Game Boy Advance and the 3DS. Like Switch 2, they were both conservative and a conservative and easy-to-understand sequel for the large Nintendo sellers. And while both reached a respectable lifetime total, they weren’t approaching the lifetime sales of their more innovative predecessors.

Is this the fate of Switch 2? Judging from the history of Nintendo’s launch, it’s possible – perhaps even possible.